The Long View on AI

A long-range inquiry into how industry evolution, technology history, capital, business models and institutions may shape the next five to ten years of AI.

Series manifesto

This is neither a news digest nor a tool guide. Each essay begins with a durable question, examines more than one plausible future, identifies the forces that could change direction, and leaves room to revise the argument as new evidence emerges.

Reading path

Infrastructure

How compute, energy, cost and public access determine whose capability AI becomes.

Will AI Become Public Infrastructure Like Electricity and the Internet?As AI becomes a capability every sector depends on, the important questions shift from model performance to access, rules, cost and responsibility. Electricity, the internet and public compute point to three plausible futures.

Aug 3, 2026

Model Order

How open and closed models, commoditization and sovereignty may redistribute control.

Business Models

Who creates value, who pays for it, and which layer ultimately captures it.

Physical Systems & Society

How firms, industries and shared life may reorganize as AI moves beyond the screen.

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